Modeling Inner Proton Belt Variability at Energies 1 to 10 MeV Using BAS‐PRO

Geomagnetically trapped protons forming Earth's proton radiation belt pose a hazard to orbiting spacecraft. In particular, solar cell degradation is caused by non-ionising collisions with at energies of several megaelectron volts (MeV), which can shorten mission lifespan. Dynamic enhancements in flux following energetic particle events have been observed last months, and there strong need for physics-based modeling predict the impact on However, variability this energy challenging because radial diffusion coefficients are not well constrained. We address using British Antarctic Survey model BAS-PRO perform 3D simulations region 1.15 ≤ L 2 from 2014 2018. The driven measurements Radiation Belt Storm Probes Ion Composition Experiment Magnetic Electron Spectrometer instruments carried Van Allen Probe satellites. To investigate sensitivity, repeated three different sets DLL taken previous literature. Comparing time evolution each result, we find that cycle drive up ∼75% increase 7.5 MeV = 1.3 over four years due increased importance collisional loss low energies. also show how anisotropy pitch angle distributions varies energy, depending DLL. However phase space density vary orders magnitude 1.4 μ 20 MeV/G uncertainty DLL, highlighting better constrain energy.